Global Macro Analysis
Overview
Builds a macro analysis framework from three dimensions: central-bank policy, exchange-rate regimes, and geopolitics. Outputs quantifiable macro factor signals to drive cross-asset allocation decisions. Core logic: macro cycles determine major asset direction, while micro-level timing is delegated to other skills.
Core Concepts
1. Central Bank Policy Transmission Chain
Policy-rate changes → government bond yield curve → credit spreads → financing costs for the real economy → corporate earnings → equity valuation
Monitoring framework for the three major central banks:
| Central Bank | Core Indicators | Forward Signals | Lagging Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve (Fed) | FFR, dot plot, SEP | CME FedWatch probabilities | nonfarm payrolls / CPI / PCE |
| European Central Bank (ECB) | Main refinancing rate | Eurozone PMI, HICP | credit growth |
| Bank of Japan (BOJ) | YCC band, policy rate | JPY exchange rate, JGB yields | core CPI |
Historical transmission of Fed hiking / cutting cycles to China A-shares (empirical):
- Late in a Fed hiking cycle (the last 1-2 hikes), China A-shares o…
