Geopolitical Risk Analysis
Overview
Quantify geopolitical risk signals, identify crisis precursors, and build event-driven strategies that convert narratives such as "war / conflict / sanctions / supply disruption" into actionable multi-asset allocation decisions.
Core Analytical Framework
1. Risk Layering Model
Layer 1: Structural risk (long-lasting, slow-moving)
└── Great-power rivalry, alliance structures, nuclear deterrence balance
Layer 2: Situational risk (cyclical escalation, monthly / quarterly scale)
└── Military exercises, election cycles, sanctions escalation, diplomatic friction
Layer 3: Event risk (sudden shocks, daily / hourly scale)
└── Military action, assassination, sanctions announcements, nuclear tests
2. Five Dimensions of Risk Assessment
| Dimension | Description | Quantitative Proxy |
|---|---|---|
| Intensity | Severity of conflict / sanctions | GPR Index percentile |
| Persistence | Expected duration of the crisis | Futures curve contango / backwardation |
| Transmission | Spillover into supply chains / finance | CDS spread widening, VIX jump magnitude |
| Predictability | Whether th… |
