Prediction Market Oracle Research

Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.

Guardrails

• Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
• Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
• Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the implied signal.
• Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
• For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run llm-trading-agent-security before granting any write authority.

Research Workflow

1. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
2. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
3. Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
4. Evaluate signal quality:
   • liquidity
   • spread
   • market age
   • trader/incentive concentration if known
   • resolution authority
   • geography or account restrictions
5. Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research, customer data, or internal KPIs.
6. Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated decision.

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